Battleground 04

Who Controls the Future of Driving?

How vehicles, software and driving come together

The management question

What should you preserve, build, access or co-develop?

Stack layers

Contested layers: 4 Models and intelligence; 5 Domain platforms; 6 Workflow, agents and orchestration

Contest dimensions

  • Vehicle architecture
  • Driving capability
  • Customer access

Participants

Established automakers

  • Toyota (Incumbent): manufacturing, quality and its own Arene software platform
  • Volkswagen (Incumbent): vehicles on an architecture co-developed with XPENG
  • Hyundai (Incumbent): vehicle partner for planned Waymo integration

Autonomous driving

  • Waymo (Challenger): an Alphabet company; 400,000+ paid rides a week and a $126 billion valuation, Feb 2026

Software-led automakers

  • Tesla (Challenger): software-first vehicles and a robotaxi service in Austin
  • XPENG (Challenger): electronic architecture co-developed with Volkswagen

Ecosystem Moves

How the players are building, buying and partnering to compete in this battleground. Newest first.

0 Build · 0 Buy · 3 Partner · 0 Compete

  • Partner
    Volkswagen / XPENG

    co-developed electronic architecture; production began

  • Partner
    Toyota / Waymo

    Exploring: preliminary agreement to explore autonomous-driving collaboration

  • Partner
    Hyundai / Waymo

    multi-year partnership; Waymo's driver planned for Hyundai vehicles

Independent and unsponsored: no company pays to appear in these battlegrounds.

Sources

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